资源简介

(共30张PPT)
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Chapter 1
Introduction
Learning target
After learning this chapter, you should be able to:
Recognize that learning and mastering international trade knowledge has never been more critical and urgent than it is today
Understand the main research content of international trade
Understand the impact of international trade on economic growth, industrial upgrading, enterprise progress, and quality of life
Be familiar with and grasp the practice and development trends of contemporary international trade
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Main content
What does international trade study
Why is international trade important
What is contemporary international trade
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What does international trade study
1. International Trade Theory
2. International Trade Policy
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1. International Trade Theory
（1）The Basis of Trade
Absolute or relative difference in technology
Differences in factor endowments
Product differentiation and economies of scale
Productivity of exogenous random sampling
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1. International Trade Theory
（2）The Pattern of Trade
Inter-industry Trade
Intra-industry Trade
Intra-firm Trade
Intra-product Trade
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1. International Trade Theory
（3）The Gains from Trade
Gains from specialization
Gains from exchange
Diversity of consumption varieties
Pro-competitive Effect
Selection effect
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2. International Trade Policy
（1） Instruments of Trade Policy
Tariff and non-tariff barriers
Export-oriented trade policy and import-substitution trade policy
Liberal trade policy and protectionist trade policy
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2. International Trade Policy
（2）Causes of Trade Policy
Country: protecting the domestic economy and industry from crises and external competition, protecting domestic employment, alleviating balance of payments imbalances, improving terms of trade, correcting unfair trade, maintaining national security, the need for political competition, and even reciprocity revenge.
The political economics of trade: it is the result of games between various interest groups.
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3. International Trade Policy
（3）Outcomes/Effects of Trade Policy
The overall impact of trade policy
The impact on firm and industry performance
The impact on the labor market
The impact of trade policy on long-term growth
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Why is international trade important
1. International Trade as a Marco Sector
2. International Trade and Growth
3. International Trade and Industry Upgrading
4. International Trade and Firm Progress
5. International Trade and Quality of Life
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1. International Trade as a Marco Sector
International trade is significant because any open economy is inseparable from international trade. In the modern economic system with deepening globalization, it is impossible for a closed economy to succeed and even very difficult for it to survive.
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2. International Trade and Growth
In the 1930s, economist D.H.Robertson proposed that foreign trade is an engine for growth. Many economists subsequently provided support for Robertson's proposition by testing the impact of international trade on growth indicators such as per capita income and total factor productivity.
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Source: VENTURA J.A Global View of Economic Growth. Handbook of Economic Growth, 2005(01): 1419-1497.
3. International Trade and Industry Upgrading
If a country accumulates a certain factor faster in an open economy, its production and export structures will shift to products that intensively use this factor, which is the Quasi-Rybczynski Effect in international trade.
宋丽 投资学 清华大学出版社 2020
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4. International Trade and Firm Progress
(1) From the perspective of export, the self-selection effect and resource reallocation effect are two important channels for international trade to improve firm productivity.
(2) From the perspective of imports, the category, quality, and competition effects also help firms improve their productivity.
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Source: Bernard A B, Jensen J B. Exporting and Productivity in the USA [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2004，20(3): 343-57.
5. International Trade and Quality of Life
Economists have found that international trade positively affects a country's per capita income. It also increases the quantity of consumer goods available to people, which is a real welfare boost from trade relative to a closed state. International trade also provides consumers with more high-quality and low-cost consumer goods, which is the price and category effect emphasized in trade theory.
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What is contemporary international trade
1. Fast Growth of International Trade
2. Deep Structure Change of International Trade
3. New Dynamics of International Trade Pattern
4. New Characteristics of International Trade Unbalance
5. More Serious Challenge Faced of Globalization
6. More Risks and Uncertainty in International Trade
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1. Fast Growth of International Trade
After World War II, there was unprecedented growth in international trade. The growth rate of trade has always far exceeded that of GDP. Correspondingly, the proportion of international trade in GDP has risen steadily.
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Source: International Trade Statistics 2014 ;World Trade Statistical Review 2021,WTO;World bank
2. Deep Structure Change of International Trade
（1）Commodity structure
At the beginning of World War II, manufactured goods and primary products each accounted for half of the trade in goods. However, since the mid-1980s, manufactured goods have remained stable at more than 70%, while primary products have accounted for less than 30%.
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2. Deep Structure Change of International Trade
（2）The proportion of trade in goods and trade in services
At the beginning of World War II, the latter only accounted for about 1/10 of the former. By 2005, trade in services accounted for 1/4 of goods. With the rapid growth of trade in services, especially cross-border e-commerce, new digital forms of trade in services such as trade have emerged. As of 2020, trade in services accounts for nearly 1/3 of trade in goods. The rapid growth of service trade is conducive to the stability of the entire world trade.
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2. Deep Structure Change of International Trade
（2）The proportion of trade in goods and trade in services
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Source: World Trade Statistical Review 2021 & WTO Stats.
2. Deep Structure Change of International Trade
（3）Geographical structure of trade
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Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2021.
Until the late 1980s, the South-South trade among developing countries was still insignificant, exerting extremely limited influence on world trade. However, since the 1990s, South-South trade has grown steadily.
3. New Dynamics of International Trade Pattern
The shift from inter-industry to intra-industry trade
The shift from inter-firm to intra-firm trade
The shift from inter-product to intra-product trade
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3. New Dynamics of International Trade Pattern
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Source: Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
4. New Characteristics of International Trade Unbalance
(1) The pattern of world trade dominated by developed economies has not fundamentally changed, but the status of developing economies has undergone dynamic adjustments, which contain positive structural changes.
(2) The changes in the balance of payments or trade balance between different countries are, mainly reflected in the fact that the developed countries represented by the United States are facing an ever-expanding trade deficit, and the developing countries represented by China are facing continuous trade surpluses, forming global trade imbalance.
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4. New Characteristics of International Trade Unbalance
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Source:UNCTADstat
5. More Serious Challenge Faced of Globalization
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指标 1870—1913 1950—2017 1950—1973 1974—2007 2008—2020
人口增长率(%) 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.2
GDP增长率(%) 2.1 5.5 5.1 7.9 1.8
人均GDP增长率(%) 1.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 1.1
国际贸易增长率(%) 3.8 5.1 8.2 5.0 1.9
净流入移民规模
(百万人) 　美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰(累计) 17.9 50.1 12.7 37.4 …
　美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰(每年) 0.28 0.90 0.55 1.17 …
　工业化国家(累计,不包括日本) … … … 64.3 …
(1) Humanity has experienced two waves of globalization. The second wave of economic globalization began in 1950. After reaching its climax in 1990, it slowed or even stagnated in 2008, marked by a cliff-like decline in the scale of international trade.
Source: MADDISON A. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. OECD, Paris, 2001;WTO. World Trade Statistical Review 2018;UNCTAD. Handbook of Statistics 2018;World Bank Open Data.
5. More Serious Challenge Faced of Globalization
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(2) The challenge of trade globalization is also reflected in the fragmentation of international relations caused by regional economic integration and the reconstruction of international trade rules.
e.g.: Brexit
6. More Risks and Uncertainty in International Trade
Since the beginning of the 21st century, various risks and uncertainties have emerged in the world economy and trade, more than in the 20th century and the previous years described by Galbraith. Frequent outbreaks of oil crises, food crises, terrorism, epidemic crisis, financial crisis, geographic politic and military conflicts have increased the uncertainty of the world's economic and trade environment. the impact of uncertainty often has a global linkage effect, especially in the era of economic globalization.
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6. More Risks and Uncertainty in International Trade
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Source: Economic Policy Uncert-ainty

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