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CHAPTER 4 POST-HECKSHER-OHLIN THEORIES OF TRADE
The product cycle theory
The Linder theory
The intra-industry trade theory
1. The imitation lag hypothesis?
Formally introduced in 1961 by Michael V. Posner (波斯纳).
It paves the way for a better known theory — the product cycle theory.?
The same technology is not available in all countries.
There is a delay in the transmission of diffusion (传播) of technology from one country to another.
§1 The Product Cycle Theory
The imitation lag: The period between the production of
good in the inventing country and the beginning of the production in another country.
(take time to learn, purchase inputs, install equipment, process the inputs,
etc. )
The demand lag: The period between the production of good in the inventing country and demand for the good by consumers in another country.
DEMAND LAG
(3 months)
New foreign goods may not be
regarded as perfect substitutes
for known domestic goods
Time between the production of
good in the inventing country to
the beginning of the production in
the importing country.
NET LAG
(5 months)
Time
Figure 4-1 Imitation lag hypothesis
IMITATION LAG
(8 months)
2. The product cycle theory?
Built upon the imitation lag hypothesis, was
developed in 1966 by Raymond Vernon.
Vernon emphasizes manufactured goods, and the
theory begins with development of a new product in
the USA.
The new product: (a) cater to high income demands because the USA is a high-income country; and (b) to be labor-saving and capital-using in nature.
Life cycle: three stages
1st Stage: New product stage
Produced and consumed only in the USA.
Product and the production process in a state of change.
No international trade takes place.
2nd Stage: Maturing product stage
Some general standards, mass production techniques,
economies of scale (contrasts with H-O and Ricardo).
Overseas demand occurs.
Export, principally to Western Europe.
Investment if so, exports decline, may even import.
3rd Stage: Standardized product stage
Knowledge of the technology widespread.
Production is moved to where it is cheapest, may shift to developing countries.
Developed countries produce other products.
Trade pattern: the USA imports the product from other developing countries.
The country source of exports shifts throughout the life cycle of the product.
Examples: Electronic products, textile and apparel industry, automobile
Factor mobility, economies of scale.
t0
New
Standardized
Maturing
Time
Home consumption
Home production
Production, consumption
of product
t1
t2
Figure 4-2 Pattern of trade for home invention under product cycle theory
0
PCT and Dynamic Comparative Advantage

EXPORT
IMPORT
U.S.A
JAPAN
CHINA
TV
§2 The Linder Theory
The theory of demand preference similarity, income trade theory.
By the Swedish economist Staffan Linder in 1961.
Exclusively demand oriented, dramatic departure from the H-O
model.
Linder acknowledged that in natural resource based industries,
trade was indeed determined by relative costs of production and
factor endowments.
However, Linder argued, trade in manufactured goods was dictated by the similarity in product demands across countries.
Assumptions of the Linder theory
(1) Consumers tastes depend on per capita income level.
As per capita income rises, the complexity and quality
level of the products demanded by the country's
residents also rises.
(2) Entrepreneurs are more knowledgeable about their
own domestic market than about foreign markets.
Gain success and market share at home first, then
expand to foreign markets that are similar in their
demands or tastes (similar per capita income level).
Counter samples: some products are only for exports.
CHRISTMAS TREE (China).
2. Trade comes in the overlapping ranges of product sophistication
Figure 4-3 Overlapping demands in the Linder Model
J
H
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
Income levels
Goods
Country
I
’
s
income
Country
II
’
s
income
Country
III
’
s
income
County
I
’
s
demand and production
Country
II
’
s
demand and production
Country
III
’
s
demand and production
Conclusion:
The most intensive trade would exist between countries of the same income or industrialization levels, not dissimilar levels as often concluded from previous theory.
The theory implied a large part of international trade would
consist of the exchange of similar or slightly differentiated
goods.
§3 Intra-Industry Trade Theory
Exchange of products belonging to the same industry.
1. Explanations of intra-industry trade
(1) Product differentiation.
Producers try to achieve brand loyalty; consumers a broad range of characteristics in a product from which to choose.
Example: US produces large automobiles；non-US producers smaller ones.
(2) Economies of scale. Specialise in a limited variety of production and thus
reap the advantages of increasing returns.
(3) Differing income distributions in countries. Satisfy the bulk population
(4) Degree of product aggregation (聚合)
The broader the category, the greater the degree of intra-industry.
Beverages and tobacco
2. Measurement of intra-industry trade
Measurement of intra-industry trade for a particular industry
If Xi > 0 and Mi = 0, IIT = 1. (greatest trade overlap)
If Mi > 0 and Xi = 0, IIT = 1. (greatest trade overlap)
If Xi = Mi ，complete trade overlap, IIT = 0
(No trade overlap)
Xi : the value of exports of industry i.
Mi : the value of imports of industry i.
经济含义：在特定产业中，相对于该产业贸易总量，出口在多大程度上为进口所抵消。
1966， Balassa
Problem
If Xi > 0 and Mi = 0, IIT = 0. (no trade overlap)
If Mi > 0 and Xi = 0, IIT = 0. (no trade overlap)
If Xi = Mi ，complete trade overlap, IIT = 1 (or 100 if the index is
expressed as a percentage by multiplying by 100)
Xi : the value of exports of industry i.
Mi : the value of imports of industry i.
Grubel and Lloyd （格鲁贝尔和劳尔德）
1975
Example:
GOOD EXPORTS($) IMPORTS($)
Fruit 65 54
Toy 56 680
Car 700 200
Movie 300 97
(2) Measurement of intra-industry trade for a country as a whole
: The absolute value of the difference between
the share of exports and imports in category i
: The sum of the export and import shares in
category i.
∑ sign: summing over all the commodity categories
The denominator must have a value of 2.
Example:
GOOD EXPORTS($) IMPORTS($)
A 400 100
B 100 300
C 200 200
Total 700 600

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