资源简介

(共46张PPT)
International Economics
PART I:
International Trade Theory and Policy
What is International Economics about
Gains from trade
Trade patterns
Trade policy (and policy effects)
Trade policy coordination
Balance of payments (国际收支)
Exchange rate determination
International capital market
Part I
Part II
Theories
Ch.01 Overview of International Trade
Ch.02 Classical Trade Theory
Ch.03 Neoclassical Trade Theory
Ch.04 Post-Hecksher-Ohlin Theory of Trade
Ch.05 Arguments against Free Trade
Policies
Ch.06 Import Protection Policy: Tariffs
Ch.07 Import Protection Policy: Non-tariff Barriers
Ch.08 Export Promotion and Other Policies
International policy coordination
Ch.09 Regional Economic Integration
Ch.10 GATT & WTO
Course Outline
§1 Merchandise trade
§2 Trade in commercial services
§3 China’s foreign trade
Ch.1 Overview of international trade
§1 Merchandise Trade
Manufactured goods
(US$ 11 tn. in 2016)
Fuels and mining products
Manufactured goods: Iron and steel, chemicals, other semi-manufactures, machinery and transport equipment, textiles, clothing and other consuming goods;
Fuels and mining products: Ores and other minerals; fuels and non-ferrous（有色的，非铁的） metals;
Agricultural products: Food and raw materials
Agricultural products
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Manufactured goods
Fuels and mining products
Agricultural products
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10%
Agricultural products
13%
Fuels and mining products
4%
others
73%
Manufactured goods
2% Iron and steel
12% Chemicals
11% Office and telecom
equipment
9% Automotive
5% Clothing and textiles
34% Other
manufactured goods
World merchandise exports by major product groups, 2016 (Share, %)
World merchandise exports
WTO members exports
US$ 15.96 tn.
US$ 15.71 tn.
Share of developing economies
Share of top 10 traders
53%
41%
Europe
North America
Asia
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Share of developing economies in world trade, 2000-2015
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
China, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, United States
Leading traders in world exports of merchandise trade, 2006-2016
(Indices, 2006=100)
Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 1981-2016
(Annual percentage change and ratio)
Definitions and methodology
Value （额/值）and volume（量） of international trade
Value of international trade
Total value of international trade in merchandise and services.
Aggregated value of imports or exports
Answer: EXPORTS! As exports of goods are usually valued at FOB excluding the cost of transportation and insurance,
imports at CIF.
Drawback: Value of international trade in different period is
incomparable. Price changes.
The value of international trade calculated on constant price.
Volume（量） of international trade
1978 1979
Q0 P0 Q1 P1
Steel 100 MT $400/MT 120 MT $420/MT
Wood 200 M3 $5/ M3 250 M3 $6/ M3
Cloth 1000 M2 $2/ M2 1200 M2 $4/ M2
Total value ∑Q0P0=43,000 ∑Q1P1= $ 56,700
Total volume (1979) = ∑Q1P0=120*400+250 *5+1200*2
= $51,650
Volume index
§2 Trade in commercial services
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Travel
Transport
Other commercial services
Goods-related services
World exports in commercial services
WTO members exports in commercial services
US$ 4.8 tn.
US$ 4.73 tn.
Share of developing economies
Share of top 10 traders
53%
34%
Share of developing economies in world trade in commercial services, 2005-2015 (percentage)
USA UK China Germany France Netherlands Japan India Singapore Ireland
Leading traders of commercial services, 2015 ( bn. US$)
During the 1980s, exports of commercial services outgrew merchandise exports.
Developed economies: services account for large portions of GDP.
The United States was the world's largest exporter and importer of commercial services.
WTO GATS’ four modes of services
General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)
1
3
4
Cross-border
supply
跨境交付
Consumption abroad
境外消费
Movement of natural persons
自然人流动
2
Commercial presence
商业存在
*
Mode 1 (Cross-border supply):
Mode 1 (Cross-border supply): from the territory of one Member into the territory of any other Member
Example:
Transport
Telecommunication
Insurance
Financial services
……
Mode 2 (Consumption abroad)
Mode 2 (Consumption Abroad): in the territory of one Member to the service consumer of any other Member
Example:
Travel
Mode 3 (Commercial Presence)
Mode 3 (Commercial Presence): by a service supplier of one Member, through commercial presence in the territory of any other Member
Example:
Financial services
Consulting services
Education services
……
Mode 4 (Presence of Natural Persons)
Mode 4 (Presence of Natural Persons): by a service supplier of one Member, through presence of natural persons of a Member in the territory of any other Member.
Which mode of supply accounts for most of trade in services
In terms of commercial value, the share of individual modes in world services trade has been estimated.
Modes of service delivery Share of individual modes in world services
Mode 1 25-30%
Mode 2 10-15%
Mode 3 55-60%
Mode 4 2-3 %
§3 China’s Foreign Trade
Merchandise trade and trade in commercial services in 2016
Trade by main commodity group
Trade by destination
Trade balance (particularly with the USA)
Ratio of China’s merchandise trade to GDP
MERCHANDISE TRADE
Value Annual percentage change
Million US$ 2016 2010-2016
exports, f.o.b. 2 098 161 5
imports, c.i.f. 1 587 431 2
2016
Share in world total exports: 13.5%
Share in world total imports: 9.78%
TRADE IN COMMERCIAL SERVICES
Value Annual percentage change
Million US$ 2016 2010-2016
exports, f.o.b. 207 725 5
imports, c.i.f. 449 833 2
2016
Share in world total exports: 4.31%
Share in world total imports: 9.58%
Exports
Imports
Lin, Justin Yifu and Yan Wang (2008). “China’s Integration with the World: Development as a Process of Learning and Industrial Upgrading”
China’s trade balance
Favorable/unfavorable balance of trade (BOT)
The difference between EXPORT value and IMPORT value
Favourable BOT: trade surplus, positive balance of trade, EXPORTS > IMPORTS.
Unfavorable BOT: trade deficit, negative balance of trade, EXPORTS < IMPORTS.
BOT: important part of the current account (经常性账户) of a nation’s balance of payment (BOP)（国际收支平衡表).
China trade balance in USD billion
WTO, Trade profiles 2017.
Determinants of BOT:
The cost of production in the exporting economy relative to those in the importing economy;
Exchange rate movements;
Multilateral, bilateral and unilateral taxes or restrictions on trade;
Non-tariff barriers;
The availability of adequate foreign exchange with which to pay for imports, etc.
Business cycle: e.g. economic expansion.
A higher savings rate generally corresponds to a trade surplus.
China, a high growth economy, has tended to run merchandise trade surpluses. Favorable BOT for nearly two decades in succession since 1994.
The United States has a lower savings rate and has had a growing deficit in tradable goods since the mid-1980s.
Especially with Asian nations (China and Japan) which now hold large sums of U.S debt that has funded the consumption of the United States.
The ratio of exports and imports of goods to GDP.
exports-to-GDP ratio more common
Indicate the openness of an economy
But results should not be interpreted as a trade policy
indicator.
An increase in the value of trade may not be a consequence of trade liberalization.
Increase of export price (e.g. oil)
Increase of import price depresses domestic economic activity
Exchange rate fluctuations
Ratio of China’s merchandise trade to GDP
(外贸依存度)
In general, the ratio in China has been increasing.
Argument 1: Too high, potential risks.
Argument 2: The ratio should be understood correctly.
High proportion of processing trade, indicating high imports being associated with high exports. (process with supplied materials, parts, samples and compensation trade “三来一补”)
China's GDP has probably been under-valued.

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