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THE HEALTH CARE MARKET
Chapter 9
U.S. Expenditures of Selected Goods and Services as Share of GDP (1960-2010)
Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, National Health Expenditure Data, and National Income and Product Accounts
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Social Insurance
Social insurance - government programs that provide insurance to protect against adverse events
Examples
Medicaid
Medicare
Social Security
Unemployment Compensation
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How Health Insurance Works
Insurance premium: money paid to an insurance company in exchange for compensation if an adverse event occurs
People are willing to pay for insurance because of
-1) Expected Value=
(probability of outcome 1)*(Payout in outcome 1) + (probability of outcome 2)*(Payout in outcome 2) +… + (probability of outcome n)*(Payout in outcome n)
-2) Risk smoothing: paying money in order to guarantee a certain level of consumption should an adverse event occur
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Example of Expected Value Computation
Draw cards from deck of cards
Draw heart and receive $12
Draw spade, diamond or club and lose $4
Probability of drawing heart = 13/52 =
Probability of drawing spade, diamond or club = 39/52 =
EV = (1/4)($12) + (3/4)(-$4) = $0
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Why Buy Insurance
Insurance Options
Income
Probability of Staying Healthy
Probability of Getting Sick
Lost Income if She Gets Sick (A) (B) (C)
Income if She Stays Healthy Income if She Gets Sick Expected Value
Option 1: No Insurance $50,000 9 in 10 1 in 10 $30,000 $50,000 $20,000 $47,000
Option 2: Full Insurance ($3,000 premium to cover $30,000 in losses $50,000 9 in 10 1 in 10 $30,000 $47,000 $47,000 $47,000
Although both yield same EV, Option 2 is preferred due to risk-smoothing.
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Why People Buy Insurance
Income
Utility
20,000
47,000
50,000
UA
UC
UD
UB
D
C
B
A
Expected Utility
Risk Smoothing
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U
Do People Buy Insurance with Loading Fees
Actuarially Fair Insurance Policy: Insurance premium = expected payout
Risk Aversion: a preference for paying more – a risk premium - in order to guarantee compensation if an adverse event occurs
Loading fee: the difference between an insurance premium charged by a company and the actuarially fair premium
Current average loading ratio for private insurance companies=1.20
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Do People Buy Insurance with Loading Fees Actuarially Fair Insurance Policy: Insurance premium = expected payout
Risk Aversion
Risk Premium
Loading Fee
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The Role of Risk Pooling
Insurance in a small population
Insurance in a large population
Law of large numbers
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Why might Government Intervention be needed in the Health Insurance Market
Asymmetric information
Situation in which one party engaged in an economic transaction has better information than the other party
An individual knows her own illness risk, but insurer does not
Results in Adverse Selection
The phenomenon under which the uninformed side of a deal gets exactly the wrong people trading with it
In charging everyone the same premium, high risk individuals have a higher probability of buying while low-risk individuals do not
DEATH SPIRAL
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Does Adverse Selection Justify Government Intervention
If risk-averse individuals are more likely to buy insurance, and they are healthier, this advantageous selection can counteract adverse selection
Experience rating
Experience rating and equity
Community rating
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Insurance and Moral Hazard
Moral hazard: when obtaining insurance against an adverse outcome leads to an increase in the likelihood of the outcome
Strategies for reducing moral hazard
Deductible: out-of-pocket payment of health costs before the insurance company pays
Co-payment: a fixed amount paid by the insured for a medical service
Co-insurance: a % of the cost of a medical service that the insured must pay
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Moral Hazard
Medical services per year
Price per unit
Dm
Sm
M1
M0
0
P0
.2P0
a
b
h
Additional expenditures
induced by
insurance
Expenditures in the absence of insurance
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Deadweight Loss
Medical services per year
Price per unit
Dm
Sm
M1
M0
0
P0
.2P0
a
b
h
Deadweight Loss
Expenditures in the absence of insurance
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Additional Considerations
Flat-of-the-curve medicine
The elasticity of demand for medical services
Does moral hazard justify government intervention in health insurance market
All third party payment systems generate moral hazard
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Other Market Failures in the Health Care Market that might Justify Government Intervention
Information problems by patients
Lack of information by consumers is a rationale for many government regulations
Externalities of Health Care
Negative and positive
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Do We Want Efficient Provision of Health Care
Equity Considerations
Paternalism
Health care decisions are too complicated to be left in people’s own hands
The Problem of the Uninsured: Is health insurance too expensive
Who are the uninsured
Does health insurance improve health
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High Health Care Costs
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [2012a].
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Causes of Health Care Cost Inflation
The Graying of America
Income Growth
Improvements in Quality
Commodity Egalitarianism
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Chapter 9 Summary
The U.S. spends a large percent of its GDP on health – 17.9% in 2010. Government-provided health insurance has been an increasing percentage of the U.S. federal budget
Reasons for growth include aging of population, growth in income, third-party payments, and technological changes
Individuals buy health insurance in order to guarantee a certain level of consumption
Pooling individuals into one insurance program can lower risk and thus premiums. However, if adverse selection occurs, premiums can rise and/or the insurer loses money
Justifications for government intervention in the health insurance market include adverse selection, moral hazard, commodity egalitarianism, and health care externalities
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